Home > Publications > Medium-term prospects for agricultural markets and income [2012-2022]

The Commission has published its medium term forecasts “Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU 2012-2022″ projecting the trends for major EU agricultural commodity markets until 2022.

Based on a set of assumptions, EU commodity markets are projected to remain balanced – on average – over the outlook period.

The report depicts a relatively positive outlook for arable crops in the EU, as a result of solid world demand and firm prices.

Medium term prospects for milk and dairy products appear favourable due to the continuing expansion of world demand. Global population and economic growth, as well as increasing preference for dairy products are expected to be the main drivers, fuelling EU exports and sustaining commodity prices, especially for cheese and skimmed milk powder.

The report hints for example at an increase in EU cheese exports of more than one third by 2022, based on sustained demand from main destinations of EU cheese (Russia, Middle East countries, the US, etc.). Similarly, skimmed milk powder exports are expected to increase by 30% by 2022, as compared to 2011, as a result of sustained demand from China, Algeria and Middle East countries.

The EU meat market is expected to contract by 2% over the next two years, affected by the on-going economic downturn.